164: The Future Of Work Is Skilled Manual Labor
Good morning everyone and welcome to thinkfuture podcast once again we’re coming to you live from deep in the heart of Silicon Valley California hope you like those interview shows over the last little while they’re pretty good so today you’ve got me on my own sorry about that I know that you guys were hankering for some more interview shows but they’re coming they’re coming to coming soon. So today I want to talk a little bit about a future work because there’s a lot of interesting discussion happening on the future work and I’ve talked about it myself a number of different ways a number different blog posts and one of the things is missing of the future of work now just as a quick recap basically what I was saying before and in my blog post and previous podcast is that. Everyone’s clamoring if you read the news recently everyone’s clamoring to talk about things like universal basic income because automation is coming along and automation is going to take away a number of jobs so they’re saying that since automation comes along it’s going to take away all these jobs so we need to give people jobs we need to give people money through U.B.I. universalise income because automation is going to take away their jobs so tech companies are to come in they can automate away people’s jobs and then those people will have to do something so let’s put them on U.B.I. and have them be paid. Now my argument for this is that yes automation will take away people’s jobs that is one hundred percent true. But the reason why automation is taking away those jobs is because they are jobs that are only fit for. Automation they’re not fit for humans anymore you see what I’m saying so if automation takes away your job then that’s actually a good thing because you probably should have been. Doing that job in the first place or any more because if it’s fit if it’s good enough for a machine to perform then it’s below the level of a human to perform so it’s something that’s not as good as you can do basically you’re under employed by doing that job. So the reality is that if on a mission takes away your job than that’s a good thing because you should be doing something better than what you have been doing. So that’s one half of the equation so I’ve been saying that and people are still shocked to hear what he’s talking about what he said about Chris is a good thing that automation is taking away jobs yes it’s a good thing that automation is taking away jobs simply because those jobs should not be done by human anymore they’re unfit for humans humans are actually stooping down below their skill level to do these jobs these are jobs that can be done so easily by a robot that can be done incredibly easily by human they could be done by a human without even almost thinking. So I say to myself affects the case what do we need to do well instead of U.B.I.. Instead of U.B.I. we need to create jobs that only humans can perform we need to create jobs that will not be automated away in the future by AI. And I thought to myself what kind of jobs could we create. That only humans can perform and I had this revelation when I went to a event nearby here at the Institute for the future and they were talking about cloud robotics the speakers time a cloud robotics and cloud products is very interesting concept I never thought about this before but apparently. Robots have always been sort of independent entities and people figure that robots should be independent and because they need think on their own so if you think about the classic concept of a robot or an Android it’s an independent entity that walks around thinks does things whatever so. Only recently have they thought about taking these robots and connecting them together in the cloud so they could share knowledge so you have a robot A which is building something and it’s self contained it can think about what it’s trying to do it does what it’s trying to do and then it moves on to the next thing so it’s a self-contained robot it’s not connected to the clout so in the cloud box concept all these robots are catch the cloud so you have robots that are used to pick things and sort things and move things around sort of manipulate things. And this researcher was talking about the act of. Clearing a table so you’ve had dinner you’ve had dinner it was very enjoyable and the dinner table is full of plates and glasses and plate and placemats and cutlery etc in order for a robot to want to roll up to that table and clear off the table. It’s an insane amount of processing power that’s required in order to do that because it has to figure out how to recognise everything that’s on the table hysterectomies eyes the material that everything on the table is made out of to determine whether or not it needs to grasp strongly or lightly. And it needs to look at where it’s sitting on the table or to pick it up in a certain way and then placing them in so something that a kindergartner can do clear the table is almost unbelievably difficult for an AI to do illegal difficult for a robot to do so this is where I have this revelation so I have to myself Well it seems to me that the thing that humans can do extremely well. In the human world that we built is manipulate physical objects physical object manipulation physical object creation is the thing and of course creativity is the thing our are the things that make us different from the AI’s from the automation so where are the new jobs in the New World where is the future work where is future work coming from and it’s skilled manual labor that’s right folks skilled manual labor so if you’re thinking about what to do to retrain people and something I mean we have this all wrong we’re taking these skilled manual laborers that are in in one area and then those that that. That industry has shut down and we are encouraging them to become coders know we should encourage them to become coders we should encourage them to take their skilled manual labor and apply it to a different field because eventually they gave in coding will be a way it’s white collar workers blue collar work and this is where they came up to the revelations that blue collar work skilled manual labor not unskilled Malay but skilled manual labor autumn can exceed construction skilled manual labor is still the last vestige of where humans can survive and we’re going to get to an interesting tipping point because on the flip side. White collar work sort of sitting at a computer working on spreadsheets working on diagrams doing reports etc scheduling project management a lot of the stuff the computers do a lot of that stuff computers can do AI can do that so we’re going to get into an interesting situation where the skilled manual labor will be more valuable then the typical white collar worker so instead of having way coworkers they can mourn anything from nothing to billions of dollars because. These people are. C.E.O.’s of major companies the C.E.O. could be an algorithm and the blue collar worker the master skilled labor would be making more than the C.E.O. Well there is no C.E.O. with snow Who are them. So the money will be rerouted to the people who. Can do the skilled manual labor the skilled manual labor will be the thing this revered So we’ll eventually if that one has people thinking oh you’re cured you’re crazy here’s what I mean there but. I can see it’s entirely possible because if AI can do most software based things and eventually eliminate rhythms come in and eliminate if. You’re already seeing algorithms eliminate middle management we’re already seeing companies like Black Rock get rid of their advisors and replace them with robo advisors we’re already seeing that’s starting to happen so if you really want a job in the upcoming. AI based economy. You either become a coder to help develop the AI or you become a skilled manual labor with some creativity to it because your going to be. In demand. That’s it for me for today C N X time until then don’t forget to think future or.