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872 Predicting the Unpredictable: The Myth of Future-Casting with Data

Predicting the Unpredictable: The Myth of Future-Casting with Data

Today we’re diving into the mind-bending world of predicting the future, thanks to a group of NYU students and their project LLM Time. It’s all about the elusive chase to forecast what’s next using vast amounts of past data. But here’s the catch: Can we truly predict the future with any degree of accuracy?

I’ve dabbled in time series data myself and I’ve got to say, it’s like trying to nail jelly to the wall. No matter how much we know about the past, prediction models keep us guessing. Every moment is fresh, each decision a new path. It’s life’s own version of roulette—every spin’s outcome is independent of the last.

This throws a wrench in the whole success literature market, too. Following someone else’s 10-step plan to success? Good luck. Their moment in time, their context, their ‘lucky break’ won’t repeat itself for you. Our future is not a carbon copy of someone else’s past.

The truth bomb? We can’t forecast the future based on the past because, well, the universe loves a good plot twist. So, what do we do? We learn to ride the waves of change, to adapt and plan without expecting the past to map out our future.



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